As you will note in the graphs below, the United States, Florida (the state “hit hardest” by COVID – per many media reports), and Kentucky, are now seeing a striking disconnect between the number of reported COVID cases and deaths. Why is that?





* The blue bars show daily cases. The red line is the sum of cases over the last 7 days. The orange line represents deaths in the last 7 days per 100,000, allowing for comparisons between areas with different population sizes.

The data you see in the graphs is directly from CDC COVID tracker website. In other words, we are looking at the same numbers that the CDC is looking at. But, what the CDC isn’t telling us, is that while detected COVID cases have exploded (in my opinion due to better case detection, but also because the D-variant is more transmissible but much less harmful), the COVID death rate has completely decoupled (in other words, deaths are not increasing at anywhere remotely close to the rate of increase in cases). This did not happen in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd waves where reported deaths closely tracked reported cases.

What does this tell us? It tells us that the variants that are out there now, including the D-variant (which CDC data shows is handled well by the vaccines), are following the typical virus pattern of getting weaker with every generation that replicates, or mutates. It also tells us that our physicians and nurses are doing a better job in using proven effective COVID therapies, like monoclonal plasma, to address the effects of COVID, rather than following initial CDC guidance – which was to tell the patient to stay home until they experienced breathing difficulties, then allow them in and stick them on a respirator.  Lastly, the huge increase in case rate proves SFA’s statements from last year that, like the common flu, everyone will eventually contract COVID. Vaccines do not stop the contracting of the disease, but they are clearly proven to lessen the disease’s effects.

Folks, the truth is that CDC data shows the COVID battle is being won! So, why is our government misinterpreting its own data and creating fear, causing job losses, potential school closures, clearly abusive and scientifically unnecessary child masking, etc.? Per Dr. Sonjay O’ Leary, chair of the American Academy of Pediatrics Council on School Health, “The pandemic has taken a heartbreaking toll on children, and it’s not just their education that has suffered but their mental, emotional and physical health”. Why is this administration utilizing CDC data to further their agenda, instead of making decisions that benefit our nation’s children, their future, our economy and businesses, and our country?

The charts we have shown illustrate that CDC data does not support the CDC’s own stated policies which in the case of our schools were admittedly (according to the CDC) word for word from the two biggest teachers’ unions “suggestions” for our nation’s reopened schools. This blatant politicizing of the disease has created huge problems in our nation and society, has reawakened FEAR in our precious children, and is ridiculously unproductive!

Folks, I have spent a lifetime analyzing data – of all kinds. I have made sense of massive statistical studies in many different fields from finance to aviation, and received a highly technical education at the United States Air Force Academy – which involved a lot of science, a lot of math, and a lot of engineering. This diverse education well prepared me to examine CDC data and draw reasonable, supported conclusions. I will state, unequivocally, that the numbers presented by the CDC do not support the ludicrous, overbearing, and tyrannical policies our government has chosen to apply based on CDC recommendations at this time. Those policies are crippling our nation’s economy. It is time for the CDC to apply their own data to create rational policies.


For all the above reasons, I do not believe that our state – or nation – will be shut down again, because CDC data irrefutably doesn’t support that, the U.S. Constitution does not allow it (even in a pandemic), and if that was attempted there would be massive protests – in all but a few select blue states. For that reason, our firm believes that the market low was this week. It is our firm’s belief that we have already seen the market low point and are likely to see a strong upside movement over the next few years. This impending significant upside move should increase as knowledge of COVID’s current, and inevitable, defeat becomes more widespread.

 I know these are bold statements, and I would not make them if the CDC data I have carefully examined was even questionable. For that reason, our firm bought strongly yesterday in our clients’ accounts. I hope each of our valued clients embrace our investment philosophy and ignore the short-term clutter of current events that do not impact our firm’s carefully curated portfolio models, or the continued strong economy we are likely to experience longer term. The tsunami of stimulus that has been put into our economy, both from the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government, should keep our equity investor’s accounts flourishing for years.

Please give us a call at (859) 223-6333, if you have any questions or concerns. Look up folks, the future is bright!

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